This is my midpoint check-in on the best baseball prospects still in the minor leagues, including players drafted two weeks ago but have not debuted in pro ball. As with my offseason list, I’m focused more on ceiling than floor, but I do consider the player’s probability of reaching his ceiling or something close to it. Please keep in mind that my offseason top-100 ranking is a month-long process, while this ranking is more of a week-plus process, and has more built-in recency bias than the rankings I run every February.
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Note that this list only includes players currently in the minor leagues who retain rookie eligibility. These are not the same criteria I use for offseason lists, where I only go by rookie eligibility regardless of roster status, since there is no active 26-man roster in the winter. Endy Rodriguez isn’t here because he’s on the major-league roster, while Elly de la Cruz isn’t here because he’s exhausted his rookie eligibility.
1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: No. 19
Holliday’s ascent from “maybe he’s a back of the first round guy” in January 2022 to “best prospect in baseball” 18 months later is about as rapid as I can remember for any prospect. It’s also a credit to the Orioles both for taking him when he was far from a consensus No. 1 in his draft class and for how much he’s already developed in their system. Baltimore just promoted Holliday to Double A, making him one of only four teenage hitters to appear at that level this year (and two of the other three are in the top 10 here), and of course he went eight for his first 16 at the level, raising his line for the season to .341/.471/.529 across Low A, High A, and now Double A. He’s also a true shortstop who’s been impressive at the position, both with his range and his instincts as the ball leaves the bat. How much better will he be when he’s old enough to start shaving?
GO DEEPER
Law: Scouting the top prospects I saw at the Arizona Fall League
2. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 3
One of the other teenagers in Double A, Chourio’s been at that level with Biloxi all year, and he’s actually three months younger than Holliday and the youngest hitter to appear in a game in Double A in 2023. Chourio’s more tooled out than Holliday but less physically advanced right now, especially in strength, with elite bat speed and hand-eye, while he’s a 70 runner who has adapted to center field like he’s been playing it all his life. There’s pretty easy power here already just from his bat speed, which makes me think it’ll be a 25-30 homer bat when he actually comes into his adult strength. The separator here between him and Holliday is in zone awareness, as Chourio’s more likely to chase stuff just outside of the strike zone, resulting in weaker contact that he needs to avoid so he can get something in-zone to drive. There might be more pure upside with Chourio than Holliday, but Holliday offers more probability and does it at a more valuable position, too.
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3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: No. 11
Mayer also moved up to Double A this year at a decrepit 20 years of age, after hitting .290/.366/.524 for High-A Greenville in 35 games to start the season. He’s a true shortstop who’s a plus defender there already and could end up more than that depending on how his body develops. I’d be shocked if he wound up moving to another position, although I know some scouts think he might end up at third base, which could be a Gunnar Henderson situation (very good at short, elite at third). Wherever he plays, Mayer can hit and already is showing close to plus power, with everything better this year now that the wrist injuries from 2022 are in the rearview mirror. It’s a beautiful left-handed swing with excellent bat speed, and he is driving the ball better to all fields this year as well. He projects as a 25-30 homer guy with strong OBPs, which will play regardless of where he is on the dirt.
4. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Salas turned 17 on June 1 and is already hitting .280/.388/.500 in 34 games in Low A as the youngest player in any full-season league this year. His feel for the strike zone is incredible for his age, with 23 walks so far and some great swing decisions, while his strikeout rate of 22.5 percent is better than the league average of 24.4 percent. He has the hands and arm to be a plus defensive catcher and he’s bilingual already, although I’ve heard some mixed reviews on the defense in his limited time so far in pro ball. It’s easy to assume he’s a long way from the majors given his age – he’s younger than every player taken in this year’s MLB draft – but I think the feel to hit is already advanced enough that he could see the majors before he’s 20. It’s a high-OBP, 20-plus homer upside along with what should be plus defense across the board at one of the hardest positions on the diamond.
5. Junior Caminero, 3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: No. 99
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Caminero came into 2023 with just 27 games of full-season experience, and he’s already in Double A, joining Holliday and Chourio as teenagers at that level this year. (The fourth, Houston’s Hector Nieves, played a handful of games in Double A earlier this year, going 4 for 40 before the Astros returned him to the Florida Complex League.) Caminero’s already at 16 homers for the season, with a .286/.348/.452 line since he got to Double-A Montgomery and just a 21.2 percent strikeout rate that’s well below the league average of 26.4 percent, consistent with his history of excellent contact rates thanks to his excellent hand-eye coordination. He’s definitely still adjusting to the better quality of offspeed stuff he’s seeing at the higher level, and the Rays continue to move him around the infield to find the ideal home for his glove, so there’s still some variability here. I see a future third baseman who hits for a high average with 25-30 homers a year and a modest walk rate.
6. Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
Previous ranking: Ineligible
The No. 1 player on my Big Board this year, Crews went to the Nats with the second overall pick after a tremendous career at LSU that saw him win the Golden Spikes Award this spring in a very crowded field. He’s an outstanding hitter who shows excellent feel for the zone and makes excellent swing decisions, looking for pitches he can drive and using the whole field well while showing power from the pull side over to right-center. He’s a 55 runner who has developed into at least a solid-average defender in center, good enough to project him to stay there going forward, although I think he’ll end up pushed to a corner by a plus defender at some point (such as fellow Nats prospect James Wood). The bat will play anywhere and he’s a likely high-average, .400 OBP guy who should get to 20-plus homers a year – and might see the majors by this time in 2024.
Jordan Lawlar (Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)7. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 9
Lawlar just turned 21 earlier this week, making him ancient for the top 10 on this list. He destroyed both levels of A-ball last year before an end-of-season promotion to Double A, where he’s spent all of 2023, showing an advanced approach for his age and excellent bat speed. He hits fastballs extremely well, even those with higher velocity, while some of the flashes of trouble he showed last year with better offspeed stuff have carried over into this year. He hasn’t had the same kind of offensive season as the guys ahead of him, with a .247/.348/.465 line in an extremely hitter-friendly home park in Amarillo — and just .228/.337/.434 against right-handed pitchers — while there’s also more discussion of him moving off shortstop than there was a year ago. He’s at least a 60 runner, maybe better underway, and I think he has the arm and range to stay at short if the Diamondbacks give him the time he’ll need there. I wrote in January that I thought he could debut this year, but he hasn’t progressed as quickly as I’d hoped, and while I still see All-Star upside here I doubt we see him in Phoenix before this time next year.
8. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Previous ranking: No. 22
Rocchio made his major-league debut this year, but just briefly. Around his stints with the Guardians, he’s hit .294/.382/.419 as a 22-year-old in Triple A, posting his lowest strikeout rate since rookie ball at just 12.6 percent with less over-the-fence power than he showed last year (2 homers in 2023 after he hit 18 in 2022). He’s a true switch-hitter who could always run but had a terrible track record as a base stealer, with a 64 precent career success rate, which he’s boosted this year by going 18 for 21 on the bases (86 percent). Rocchio is an above-average shortstop with excellent hands and good instincts, which makes it all the more baffling that the Guardians, who’ve gotten nothing from shortstop this year, haven’t called him up and given him a shot at the job.
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9. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres
Previous ranking: No. 20
The Padres’ first-round pick in 2021, Merrill got substantially stronger in his first offseason with the club and hasn’t stopped hitting since, showing better contact quality and more power than expected in the two years he’s spent in pro ball. He’s an exceptional hitter for any sort of contact with a strikeout rate of just 11.9 percent so far this year, mostly in High A with a promotion in mid-July to Double A, and he hammers fastballs. He’s had some more difficulty squaring up offspeed stuff this year, still making a lot of contact but with worse results, and pitchers have been challenging him just off the plate with more success, which is part of why he’s lost over 100 points off his BABIP from 2022 to 2023.
10. Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: No. 53
Carter continues to post very strong OBPs thanks to a disciplined, patient approach that also sees him post well above-average contact rates, with a .411 on-base percentage so far this year as a 20-year-old in Double A. He’s a plus defender in center who has shown good feel to hit and makes a lot of medium-quality contact, probably ending up a hitter for a high average with a lot of doubles but maybe 12-18 homers a year and a similar stolen base total thanks to above-average speed. He still takes too many fastball strikes, and the swing path remains a little too flat for him to get to 20-plus homers a year, which I’d suggested was his ceiling in his report this past winter. Now he looks like a higher floor/probability guy with perhaps a little less ceiling than it seemed.
11. Jeferson Quero, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 45
Quero has been improving at the plate as the season has progressed, gaining power and patience after starting a little slow this year as a 20-year-old in Double A. Since June 1, he’s hitting .327/.452/.475 for Biloxi — and that’s from a good defensive catcher who’s an above-average receiver with a plus arm. He’s thrown out 36 percent of opposing base stealers this year, an improvement over 2022, and continues to show he can make adjustments on both sides of the ball. Even his walk/strikeout numbers tell a little bit of the story — through the end of May, he had 7 walks and 29 strikeouts, but since then he has 22 walks and 16 strikeouts. Catchers often take longer to develop because of how much they have to work on defensively and offensively, but Quero is on track to see the majors before he turns 22, with the upside of Willson Contreras but with good defense.
12. Curtis Mead, 3B/1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: No. 24
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The Rays’ top two prospects were both acquired out of rookie ball in what appeared to be minor trades at the time — the Phillies traded Mead, who had only played in the Gulf Coast League, to Tampa for pitcher Cristopher Sánchez; while the Guardians traded Caminero, who had only played in the Dominican Summer League, for since-released pitcher Tobias Myers. Mead was hit by a pitch on his wrist on April 29 and missed two months, but since his return he’s hit .447/.500/.702 in 11 games, which is OK I guess. It’s probably a 60 hit tool with 50 power, which will play anywhere, but he hits the ball hard enough to think he could end up with more power than that, and his value will be higher if he shows he can stick at third rather than moving to first. I do sort of wish we could get him in a lineup with Seth Beer and Robbie Wine.
13. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Langford was the No. 4 pick in this month’s MLB draft, coming off a season where he hit .373/.498/.784 with 23 homers for the University of Florida. He’s a 70 runner with plus power and a swing that is geared to drive the ball out from left to center, with strong plate discipline that took a big step forward this spring. He played left field for the Gators and was not a great defender even with his speed, so while I expect the Rangers to try him in center, he’s probably going to end up in a corner. He might have some trouble with velocity up in or above the zone at first, but that’s probably his one weakness at the plate. The upside here of a 30-homer guy with a high OBP and some base running value made him the No. 2 player on my board, only behind Dylan Crews.
14. Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: No. 29
Acquired at the deadline in 2021 in the Anthony Rizzo trade, Alcantara just turned 21 earlier this month and has recovered from a brutal start to 2023 in High A — he had 1 walk and 21 strikeouts in May, posting a .216 OBP in the merry old month — to resume hitting for average and power as he did last year. He’s already gotten substantially stronger just since the Cubs acquired him, and still has at least 20 pounds of muscle in his future, with 40-homer upside at his peak. He’s 6-6 and lanky, with improved coordination from when the Yanks signed him as a gangly 16-year-old, and is at least a solid-average defender in center. He has some more failure risk than most other prospects up in this range, but his control of the zone, ability to pick up spin, and willingness to go the other way all mark him as someone who’s advanced enough at age 21 to still carry superstar upside.
Termarr Johnson (Charles LeClaire / USA Today)15. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: No. 18
Johnson, the No. 4 pick in the 2022 draft, didn’t hit his first homer this year until May 18 in his 17th game, his second until June 2 in his 29th game, and has now hit 9 in the last five weeks, posting exit velocities that have reached 110 mph. He’s a hit-first guy with an outstanding approach and a real ability to square the ball up, even with a little extra hand movement in the swing, and he’s already showing a little more power potential than he even seemed to have as an amateur given his 5-8 stature. The Pirates are mostly playing the 19-year-old at second base, which should be his long-term position, as he didn’t have the arm or quickness for short. He’s earned raves for his makeup and feel for the game since he was in high school, making him someone to bet on. He should be in High A before too long and I could see him reaching the majors before he’s 21.
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16. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Skenes was the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft after leading Division I in strikeouts this spring for LSU. The 6-6 right-hander is the hardest-throwing amateur starter I’ve ever seen, sitting 100 mph for several innings and still topping out there deep into starts, pairing it with a plus slider to keep hitters from trying to sit on the heater. He hides the ball very well behind his body thanks to a compact arm action, which should help the fastball as well, although he does need to develop his changeup, a pitch he has barely used because why would you give the hitter a break like that? It’s already average command with two plus pitches, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think the third will come with more use, giving him top-of-the-rotation upside if he stays healthy.
17. Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: No. 51
The Twins were aggressive with Lee, the No. 8 pick in the 2022 draft, sending him to Double A to start his first full pro season, and he’s responded by hitting .282/.361/.468 so far for Wichita with a Texas League-leading 29 doubles. Lee’s a hitter first who might come into 15-20 homer power in time, but the whole approach is geared to line-drive contact across the whole field. A jump from college one spring to Double A the next would be a big challenge for most players, but Lee’s pitch recognition has always been strong and it’s carried over into pro ball. He’s still playing shortstop but I think he’ll move to third or second by the time he sees the majors. Lee’s a high floor guy, as it’s very hard to imagine he’s less than a regular, although I think the only way he’s a true star is if he’s a consistent .300+ hitter and gets toward that power ceiling.
18. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: No. 26
Crow-Armstrong was the return in the trade that sent Javier Báez to the Mets for his last two months before free agency, and since the deal Crow-Armstrong has changed his body and his game to be more of a power-hitting center fielder rather than a high-average one who might not get to 10 homers. He’s at 11 this year already after hitting 16 last season, still playing grade-70 defense in center and adding value as a base stealer (23 for 30 this year). He’s become a little too pull-oriented, with all of his homers this year going out to right or right-center, and he expands the zone as the count progresses, both of which are why his strikeout rates are higher than they should be. The defense will carry him, but there’s a ceiling here where he finds the balance between the contact-oriented guy he was in high school and the 20+ homer guy he’s become.
19. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 6
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Cartaya’s 2023 season has been a modest disaster, if we’re being candid here. As I write this, he hasn’t had a hit since the All-Star break, going 0 for 16 with 8 strikeouts in the first four games back, bringing his average below .200 for the season. He’s not hitting the ball as hard this year as he has in previous seasons, even last year when he dealt with a myriad of problems with his back, hamstring, hand, and three of his four bodily humors. He’s improved behind the plate, which is one positive sign, and has been working on some of the less visible aspects of the job like game-planning. The old axiom about catchers taking longer to develop, which I mentioned in my comments on Jeferson Quero, might apply here, as Cartaya’s moved very quickly — he’s 21 in Double A, and came into the year with just 126 total games in the U.S. under his belt — and I’m keeping him in the top 20 in the belief that the bat will bounce back.
20. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals
Previous ranking: No. 16
Wood started the year in High-A Wilmington, which worked out well for me as a Delaware resident, and hit so well the Nats promoted him to Double A before June began. The jewel of the Juan Soto trade so far — well, other than Soto himself — was pretty dominant for the Blue Rocks, with a .293/.392/.580 line and outstanding defense in center, although he struck out 27 percent of the time. That has proven a harbinger of some trouble at the higher level, where he’s punched out 31 percent of the time already. He’s 6-7, and hitters that tall have more trouble covering the zone because of their sheer size, with Wood already showing some in-zone miss and struggling to lay off or foul off pitches just off the zone. He’s an absurd athlete who has three 70s on the scouting report in his power, speed, and defense. If it all clicks, it’s 30/30 in center field. The risk in the bat is what keeps him from the top 10 right now.
21. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
Previous ranking: No. 25
Montgomery missed the first three months of 2023 with a back injury and an oblique strain, with the back injury apparently serious, and has played just 8 games outside of his rehab stint in Arizona. He’s 12 for 25 with 12 walks and 6 strikeouts for High-A Winston-Salem, where he spent a chunk of last season, so it looks like he might be OK, although his next stop should be Double-A Birmingham. Montgomery has a good swing and an excellent understanding of the strike zone, projecting to hit for average with very strong OBPs, while his power is probably around 45 right now and he has a bit of work to do to get to 15-plus homers a year. I’ve liked him at shortstop because his instincts are so good but the consensus is that he’ll move to third base. I think the bat plays anywhere as long as he stays healthy and his ceiling is a function of his eventual power.
22. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: No. 48
Rodriguez missed the last two-thirds of 2022 after a knee injury, then started this season not just rusty, but like a giant tower of iron oxides and hydroxides, hitting .163/.320/.357 through the end of May, which I like to think of as an “oh no did I rank this guy too high?” triple-slash line. He had three hits with a homer on June 1 and has been better since then, hitting .256/.421/.470 with the same outstanding patience and willingness to run deep counts. He just does not chase — his chase rate this year is 14 percent, which is lower than Juan Soto’s chase rate in every year of his MLB career — but takes too many strikes right now, which I think is an easier thing to fix than someone’s pitch or ball/strike recognition. He’s got plus-plus raw power and should get to that more in games as he gets a little more experience. A centerfielder now, Rodriguez probably moves to right before too long, but the potential for a .400 OBP with 25 homers there would make him at least an above-average regular.
Masyn Winn (Nick Cammett / Diamond Images via Getty Images)23. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: No. 46
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Winn might have a better throwing arm than Elly De La Cruz, which should get your attention, and he’s at least a 60 defender who’ll probably end up a 70 there when he reaches the majors. He also has electric bat speed, but there were plenty of questions about his overall approach at the plate when he was the Cards’ second-round pick in 2020. That makes it all the more impressive that he’s in Triple A this year at 21 and hitting well, with a .273/.344/.418 line and just a 16.4 percent strikeout rate. An elite defender at short who puts the ball in play a lot, has some doubles power, and is a 70 runner is a pretty good player, I think. Maybe there’s some more power down the road, but even if not, he should be a regular and able to take over at short next year.
24. Max Clark, OF, Detroit Tigers
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Clark was the closest thing to a five-tool player in this year’s draft class, and probably goes first overall in a lot of years — while Holliday is obviously the better prospect now, I think Clark was more impressive at the same age, and that’s not any knock on the current top prospect in the minors. Clark has an excellent left-handed swing that produces pretty easy power, while he’s a 70 runner who can play the heck out of center field, and he’s shown good plate discipline already in the limited times he’s been able to demonstrate it. He’s a hard worker by all accounts and doesn’t seem the least bit fazed by attention, of which he’s going to get a lot more once he hits the minor leagues. There’s certainly superstar potential here, on and off the field, and we’ll get a better gauge on how long it’ll take him to get there once he starts playing in the GCL or Low A next month.
25. Walker Jenkins, OF, Minnesota Twins
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Jenkins was the fifth pick in this year’s draft and fifth on my board, but I know plenty of scouts who thought he was the best player available and think he’s a young Larry Walker. It’s a gorgeous left-handed swing, and he’s a projectable athlete who runs above average and plays center now, eventually moving to right field and probably becoming a plus defender there. He didn’t face much good pitching at all this spring – he walked four times the night I saw him, and two of the four came back to bite the opposing coach, which served him right — so the confidence in his hit tool is based as much on the swing than results. This is, as they say, what they’re supposed to look like, and I could easily see him becoming a .280+ hitter with 25-30 homers and strong OBPs.
26. Tink Hence, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Previous ranking: No. 63
Hence has barely pitched, and that’s about the only negative thing I can say about him. The Cardinals’ second second-round pick in 2020, after they took Jordan Walker in the first and Masyn Winn with their prior second-round pick, Hence is already in the mid-90s with a plus changeup and average curveball, throwing plenty of strikes, with athleticism for days. He just had his first-ever 80-pitch start on July 4, as the Cardinals have taken it extremely slowly with him, but he’s recorded 15 outs in five of his last seven outings, so maybe they’re starting to ease up a little bit. There’s not that much evidence that limiting pitch counts this much is going to keep anyone healthy, not that I know of, and Hence has a chance to be really special if he can stay a starter. (How great is that Cardinals’ 2020 draft, by the way? Walker and their last second-round pick Alec Burleson are in the majors, Winn and Hence are top 30 prospects, and fourth-rounder Ian Bedell has been throwing extremely well in High A now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery, with a 1.97 ERA and great peripherals.)
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27. Jasson Dominguez, OF, New York Yankees
Previous ranking: No. 32
As I look around on the Jasson Dominguez bandwagon, it appears there are some empty seats that were occupied in February, so feel free to hop aboard. The Martian has hit .220/.358/.383 for Double-A Somerset, but he’s still flashing plus power, running plus-plus, playing solid or better defense in center, and controlling the zone very well for his age. There’s been too much in-zone miss, especially with right-handers going with fastballs middle-away to him, but the rest of the package is intact and he’s younger than the college guys who were just drafted and will probably start in A-ball. Maybe he just won’t move as fast as it seemed last August, but there’s still huge upside with these tools and he’s still got plenty of an idea at the plate to get there.
28. Justin Crawford, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Previous ranking: Unranked
Crawford, the Phillies’ first-round pick last year, was supposed to be a long-term projection guy who could run and play center but had to add all this strength to get to any power. Wrong, Jack Germondo! Crawford’s BP before the Futures Game had him driving the ball out the other way, and once he gets out of the graveyards of the Florida State League he’s going to start putting balls in seats in the games, which is terrifying because he hasn’t begun to fill out. He is, also, a plus-plus runner who can play center, with 36 steals in 41 attempts, and has already shown strong bat-to-ball skills. This could be very special — he might be the player his father, Carl, was supposed to be but never was.
29. Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets
Previous ranking: No. 87
Longtime readers know I eschew player comps because they are more misleading than informative in the majority of cases, but if the shoe fits, well, I think Ronny Mauricio might be Alfonso Soriano because the similarities seem to hit me in the face whenever I see him. Mauricio has plus power from his wrists and forearms and can mis-hit a ball hard more than most guys do, so while he doesn’t walk much, he also makes a lot of contact and has even cut down on his swing and miss this year. He’s not very good at shortstop and not a runner, so the Mets have tried him at second base and left field so far this year in Triple A, either of which could be a long-term home for him, and with 30-homer power and contact rates that should let him hit for average, he’d be at least a regular at either spot, maybe an All-Star at second base. Almost everything I said would have applied pretty well to a young Soriano, too, so every once in a while, yes, I’ll give you a player comp. Just don’t ask me for another.
30. Brady House, 3B, Washington Nationals
Previous ranking: No. 85
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After missing most of last year due to injury, House returned to Low A to start this year, hit .297/.369/.500, then moved up to High-A Wilmington, but was barely here long enough to visit the Charcoal Pit* before the Nats moved him up to Double A earlier this week. (*Don’t visit the Charcoal Pit, no matter what the locals tell you. We have better food.) House makes very hard, very loud contact, with a swing that is powerful but not out of control, and of course there’s some swing-and-miss associated with it, especially in the zone. He has pretty good pitch recognition and seems to know the strike zone, which is a great starting point, and he’s looked more than serviceable at third base. This is just stupid power — he homered out to dead center in Wilmington, which nobody does because the park is more or less located at the bottom of the Christina River, and it left in a hurry. There’s definitely hit tool risk here but I will bet on the 40-homer upside within.
31. Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 41
Frelick hurt his left thumb in April and underwent surgery to fix it, keeping him off the field for two months and probably sapping his power, as he has just one homer and two doubles in the month-plus since his return. When healthy, he’s a very high-contact guy who rarely whiffs on strikes, showing doubles power and enough strength to ambush a few balls and pull some homers out to right, probably 8-12 a year at his peak. He’s a 70 runner and at least a 60 defender in center as well. The Brett Gardner comps are obvious but Gardner’s power came out of nowhere and probably got an assist from a home park that remains rather friendly to left-handed pull hitters. If Frelick ends up Gardner without the homers, that’s still a very good player.
32. Cole Young, SS, Seattle Mariners
Previous ranking: Unranked
Young was Seattle’s first-round pick last year, taken 21 overall, and just earned a promotion to High A after hitting .267/.396/.429 in Low A with more walks (54) than strikeouts (52). His feel for contact was very impressive when he was an amateur and last summer in his pro debut, while the rest of his tools are mostly above-average now or projected to get there in the future. He might end up with more average power than above-average, but this kind of contact/OBP skill will end up more important than a 10-12 homer total if that’s where he settles — especially if he stays at shortstop, which is the most likely outcome for him on defense.
33. Colt Keith, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Previous ranking: Unranked
Keith was the Tigers’ fifth-round and final pick in the 2020 draft, signing rather than going to Arizona State, and after two injury-shortened seasons in his first two full years in pro ball, he’s been healthy and very productive all of 2023, hitting .325/.391/.585 for D-A Erie before a promotion at the beginning of July to triple A. He’s already set a career high with 16 homers in 71 games, and does it with a compact swing that allows him to make contact at well-above-average rates, while consistently walking about 10% of his PA. Keith is a third baseman now and is a fringy defender there who might end up at first base when it’s all said and done, although before that the Tigers should at least try him at second. Wherever he plays, the bat will make him among the best at his position; if he stays at third or can handle the keystone, he’ll be a star.
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34. Sammy Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: Unranked
A bit of context might help for readers who aren’t Orioles fans: Baltimore didn’t bother with the international free agent market for at least a decade, and when they gave Basallo a $1.3 million bonus in 2021 — the largest in club history— even though bonuses of $3 million-plus are pretty common at this point. The O’s are where they are in the standings because they have drafted unbelievably well since Mike Elias took over as GM, and if they start hitting on IFAs like they seem to have hit on Basallo, we should all run for cover. He’s an offensive catcher with plus power, maybe 70 power in the end, hitting 12 homers already this season as an 18-year-old in Low A, tying him for fourth in the Carolina League behind three guys all 21 and older. He can catch even with a body that’s on the larger side for the position with a plus arm that’s helped him nail 32 percent of opposing runners this year. I suppose you could argue that the Orioles have their catcher for the next decade, but Basallo would be the catcher of the future for the majority of MLB teams right now.
Jackson Jobe (Courtesy of Kimberly Richelle / Heritage Hall)35. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Previous ranking: No. 83
Jobe missed the first half of 2023 with lumbar spine inflammation, and I don’t love ever hearing about a significant back injury for any player, but the good news is he’s back making short starts on a rehab stint in Low A and the stuff is as good as ever. Jobe has been up to 99 mph and sitting upper 90s with high spin rates on the fastball and shows a wipeout sweeper with hard, late downward break. While this year he’s added a true slider along with those two and his changeup, which is a fourth pitch but should be adequate to keep lefties in check. The delivery is fine and he does several things to generate big power from his hips and legs. Health is the obvious question here, but if he can handle the workload, he could be a No. 2 starter.
36. Joey Ortiz, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: No. 95
Free Joey Ortiz? He’s hopelessly blocked at this point with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg ahead of him, and Jackson Holliday coming up like a bullet train behind him, but Ortiz could be someone’s everyday shortstop right now. He’s certainly done his part, hitting .337/.394/.553 in 47 Triple-A games around a couple of brief call-ups to the majors, where he’s barely gotten off the pine. He’s a plus defender at short who reworked his swing during the pandemic to improve both his contact quality and bat path for more power. I wrote in the offseason that I thought he would “hit for a high average with 30-40 doubles and 10 homers” as a big-leaguer, and I still think that applies. Add plus defense at shortstop to that and you have a very good regular – and someone ready right now, too.
37. Yanquiel Fernandez, OF, Colorado Rockies
Previous ranking: Unranked
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Fernandez signed as a free agent for just $295,000 in July 2019, but the Cuban outfielder didn’t debut in the U.S. until 2022, when he poked 21 homers and 33 doubles for Low-A Fresno. He carried that over to the first half of this year, hitting .319/.355/.605 with 17 homers in 58 games for High-A Spokane before a promotion to Double A. He has a big leg kick and draws his hands way back, nearly barring his lead arm, but then unleashes on the ball, which produces some swing and miss — fastballs up, sliders down below the zone — but also makes for very hard contact. The recent bump up to Double A might have been too much too soon, as he’s struck out a third of the time in his first 17 games, although he’s also hit five homers in that span. He’s got a plus arm and can handle right field, so if he can keep the contact rate up or walk a little more, he should be an above-average regular there.
38. Dalton Rushing, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 62
Rushing was the Dodgers’ first pick in last year’s draft, taken in the second round, and went out and eviscerated Low-A pitching for a month after he signed. He’s in High A now, hitting .251/.420/.462, with hard contact and excellent ball/strike recognition once again. The University of Louisville product is an adequate receiver with a 45 arm, projecting to stay at the position but to always be more valuable on offense than defense. He has had some trouble this year with breaking stuff, which is new for him, and I think top-end velocity will always be an issue, but his zone awareness is going to carry him a long way even if he’s never a great breaking ball hitter. It’s 20-25 homers with a high OBP behind the plate, which makes you a regular at worst.
39. Harry Ford, C, Seattle Mariners
Previous ranking: No. 65
Ford was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2021 and drew 88 walks in his full-season debut last year, putting him in the top 25 across all of the minors and second among teenagers, one behind Boston’s Brainer Bonaci and one ahead of Colorado’s Adael Amador. Ford is a catcher, at least nominally, and is extremely athletic for a backstop, with plus running speed and a 55 arm. But his receiving isn’t great and he hasn’t had any success throwing runners out so far in pro ball. His bat will play at many positions, however, as he has exceptional ball-strike recognition and already flashes plus raw power, with the potential for more as he fills out. I think he stays behind the plate for now, but his bat might just prove to be too advanced and the Mariners may find it more expedient to move him to another position so they can get him to the majors sooner, the way the Nats and Royals did with Bryce Harper and Wil Myers, respectively.
40. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Previous ranking: No. 12
One thing I don’t like to see in pitching prospects is control or command going backward, and that’s what has happened to Harrison this year with the move to Triple A. He’s walked more guys in 56 innings in 2023 than he did in 84 innings in Double A last year. He’s only thrown 58 percent of pitches for strikes, and I don’t think that’s something we can blame on the use of an automated ball/strike challenge system, either. Harrison’s stuff remains elite, however, as he’s still 92-95 mph with run and ride, and pairs it with a plus slider, coming from a lower 3/4 slot that adds a lot of deception. He doesn’t have much of a changeup and right-handed batters have hit .248/.415/.556 off him this year, which is really all of the problem. He’s also on the IL right now with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, a partial tear that will probably keep him out several more weeks and could end his regular season. He’s left-handed with two plus pitches that have missed bats up through Triple A, and that’s not nothing, but he’s going to have to throw more strikes and develop something for righties to end up a starter, let alone the above-average one he looked like he was developing into last year.
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41. River Ryan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: Unranked
Ryan was a two-way player at UNC-Pembroke when the Padres took him in the 11th round in 2021, but he never threw an inning for San Diego, as they traded him in March of 2022 for Matt Beaty. The Dodgers made him a full-time pitcher and he’s taken off, working at 95-99 with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a hammer curveball. I saw a plus changeup from him in spring training but he’s barely used it this year, and he’s shown some platoon split as a result, allowing a .385 OBP to lefties. He’s used each of the curve and the slider more than the changeup to left-handed batters, which doesn’t make much sense given how those pitches typically work and the results he’s having. He’s very athletic with an excellent delivery, while his command and control remain below average, especially to left-handed batters. There’s No. 2 starter upside here with improved command and a different pitching plan.
42. Sebastian Walcott, 3B, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: Ineligible
The Rangers signed Walcott, a Bahamian infielder, for a $3.2 million bonus this past January, and he’s been the talk of the Arizona League already, with six homers in 15 games and a .397 average, although he’s struck out 20 times in 69 plate appearances. Walcott is an extremely projectable shortstop who already makes very hard contact, with explosive bat speed and the potential for 30+ power even before he fills out completely. He’s probably going to move off shortstop, as he’s 6-4 and probably going to be 230 pounds or more at his peak, with a plus arm that would allow him to stick at third base. This bat looks like it’ll play anywhere, though, and he could be a top-10 prospect by this time next year.
43. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Previous ranking: Unranked
Gonzalez has hit everywhere he’s played so far, with a .348/.403/.530 line this year as a 19-year-old in Low A before a promotion earlier in July to High-A Everett, and shows plus power with a little room to grow in that department as well. His approach at the plate is solid, as he doesn’t chase and tends to swing at strikes, although he continues to get hit by pitches more than you’d like (for injury reasons). He’s got a cannon of an arm that will help make up for what will probably be fringy range in right field. Gonzalez turned 19 in January and could even sniff Double A before this season is out, and even if there isn’t another grade of power in here it’s probably a 6 hit tool and 6 power, which would make him at least an above-average regular in an outfield corner.
44. Adael Amador, SS, Colorado Rockies
Previous ranking: No. 98
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Amador is a switch-hitting shortstop with one of the best batting eyes in the minors — well, two of them, technically — with more walks than strikeouts for the second year in a row. He remains an extreme groundball hitter, with a slightly higher rate this year (56 percent) than in 2022, although he has average raw power and has hit 9 homers this year, so there’s some reason to hope that the Rockies can keep working with him on looking for pitches where he can let it rip. He’s probably 60/40 to end up at second base, although he should get every opportunity to stick at short. He’s currently on the IL while recovering from surgery for a broken hamate bone.
45. Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: Unranked
The Red Sox took Anthony in the second round in 2022 out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida, moving him to Low A to start 2023. He hit just .220/.376/.317 at that level, but the Red Sox were so pleased with his batted-ball data that they promoted him to High A, where he’s hitting .338/.484/.770 in 21 games with 8 homers already, so I’m going to say that promotion was probably a good call. Anthony has a great baseball body and a powerful swing that, as you might have inferred, produces strong exit velocities even though he hasn’t filled out physically yet, and he’s shown much better pitch recognition and zone awareness in pro ball than it seemed like he had in showcases and tournaments as an amateur. I wrote in January that “if he’s that much more advanced a hitter than the industry thought, the Red Sox got a steal.” Guess what? The Red Sox got a steal.
46. Tyler Black, IF, Milwaukee Brewers
Previous ranking: No. 96
Black doesn’t have a clear position and may just have to settle for being a 45 defender at third and second, but the guy just hits, with outstanding ball/strike recognition that has driven him to a .420 career OBP in the minors, including a .286/.430/.528 line so far this year in Double-A Biloxi. The Brewers took the Canadian infielder out of Wright State in the sandwich round, at No. 33, in 2021, and last year played him at third, second, and in center, while this year he’s only played third base, where his footwork and hands are fine but his arm is a little short. There’s a lot going on with his swing from a big leg kick to excess hand movement, but Black makes it work for him, in large part because he is so selective about when he swings. He won’t play center in this organization but I think he could for someone given his plus speed. He’s got a high floor as a regular somewhere on the dirt, perhaps lacking much ceiling because of the lack of a clear defensive home.
47. Noelvi Marte, 3B/SS, Cincinnati Reds
Previous ranking: No. 49
Marte came over to the Reds in the Luis Castillo trade last July and has continued to hit without really answering the question of where he’s going to play the field. The Reds have played him at short and third this year, although since a promotion to Double A he’s only played at the hot corner, and he’s probably a 45 defender at both spots; I give him more chance to improve at third because he’s played it less, at least. The bat profiles at either spot because he’s got excellent bat control and doesn’t swing and miss very often at pitches in the zone, while there’s 55 power here that might get him to 20 homers a year with solid batting averages and OBPs.
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48. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: No. 37
Rafaela is one of the best defensive center fielders anywhere in the minors, a plus runner with superb instincts who continues to show sneaky 55 power even though he’s pretty slight for a 22-year-old. He’s overly aggressive at the plate, and that’s burned him in his brief time so far this year in Triple A, where he’s walked once with 18 Ks in 72 plate appearances because he’s chasing stuff out of the zone that he could hit at lower levels but not there. There’s such a high floor here with the defense and power; Kevin Kiermaier has played 11 years and been worth over 30 rWAR with a career .310 OBP because of his defense and has no more power than Rafaela does. If the Curaçao native can focus on swinging at strikes, that kind of career is within reach.
49. Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Previous ranking: Just missed
Williams is a plus defender at shortstop who does damage when he makes contact, hitting .253/.360/.490 this year as a 20-year-old in High A even with a strikeout rate of exactly 30 percent. He doesn’t have a single, significant flaw in his approach, as his chase and in-zone whiff rates are well below (as in better than) league average, which gives some more reason to hope he’ll bring the K rate down over time. He’s got excellent bat speed and very strong hands and wrists for power to pull and even some the other way, while he’s also become a better runner since the Rays worked with him to improve his gait. Longtime readers know I tend to downgrade players with this kind of strikeout rate, so it should tell you how good Williams is at the other parts of his game — defense, power, speed, even feel to hit – that he’s on this list.
Kyle Teel (Mike Caudill / AP Photo)50. Kyle Teel, C, Boston Red Sox
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Teel was the best catcher in this year’s loaded draft class, a very athletic backstop who caught and hit well for UVA this spring in one of the best conferences in college baseball. He has outstanding bat speed and pitch recognition, rarely striking out for the Cavs in 2023 (12 percent), making line-drive contact and hitting for power against right-handers. He’s very agile behind the plate with a 60 arm and good hands, needing work on framing and handling pitches below the zone, although there’s no doubt he stays at catcher for the long term. He doesn’t hit lefties for any power, at least not so far in a small sample, which is probably his one area for work as a hitter. I think he’s at least a regular with a chance to be a Jason Kendall type of hitter, with high contact rates and some value from speed along with modest power.
51. Everson Pereira, OF, New York Yankees
Previous ranking: No. 86
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Pereira hit .291/.362/.546 for Double-A Somerset this year before a promotion to Triple A earlier this month, which was a little surprising because the 22-year-old did have some trouble with contact, striking out 29 percent of the time before the promotion, mostly because of a tendency to chase offspeed stuff out of the zone. He’s an above-average defender in center field who can run and shows electric bat speed that produces pull power already, with 11 homers so far this year in 55 games after he hit 14 last year in nearly twice that playing time. He’s added some strength even since last year and can drive the ball the other way, although his home runs are nearly all to the pull side. He’s still inexperienced for his age, as last year was the first time he’d played even 50 games since he signed in 2017, due to a number of injuries and the lost 2020 season, so there could be more potential for growth in his approach if the Yankees give him the time to work on it.
52. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 38
Pfaadt shouldn’t be on the list because he should have exhausted rookie eligibility by now, but he’s been so bad in six major-league starts that he’s back in the minors. It turns out that major-league hitters are, in fact, pretty good, and if you make mistakes, like leaving a whole bunch of fastballs in the heart of the zone, they will punish you for it. Pfaadt does have the stuff to be an above-average big-league starter, including a fastball that has a very high spin rate with good carry, and he gets great extension over his front side. He’s got a four-pitch mix and the slider (or “sweeper”) did show flashes of being plus in the majors, while his changeup missed bats when he kept it out of the heart of the zone. His command was just awful in the big leagues, and hitters made him pay. That’s not the pitcher he’s been all the way up through Triple A, where he’s had success in the pitchers’ hell of Reno this season, and his stuff is too good to let 25 innings change our perception of him.
53. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: Unranked
Horton was the eighth overall pick in 2022 after he changed his breaking ball with a few weeks left in the college season and went on an incredible run for Oklahoma, leading the Cubs to jump up and take him in the top 10 even though he had no track record of success before that. In his first stint in pro ball, he dominated Low A for four starts and has been solid in High A, missing a lot of bats but giving up more hard contact. The slider is still a knockout pitch, but the good news in 2023 is that Horton has developed an above-average changeup at 83-86 mph with great arm speed and some late tumble; he barely threw a changeup in college and this one has better deception and action on it. The fastball is still up to 98 mph but plays down, with hitters getting good wood on the pitch, and he’ll probably have to work more away from it for sustained success. The delivery’s a little arm heavy, without much hip rotation, although he’s got a sturdy build and could probably generate more power from his lower half. I didn’t think he looked like a starter a year ago, but the development of the changeup really changes his profile.
54. Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous ranking: No. 14
It’s been a lost year for Jones, who’s been on the IL twice already with a quad strain and a hamstring strain, and in 60 plate appearances for Low-A Visalia around the injuries he hit just .175/.283/.200. He was the top prospect in the 2022 draft class and went second overall, but hurt his shoulder almost immediately and missed the rest of the year, the same shoulder injury that befell Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar, unfortunately, so those 60 plate appearances are all we’ve seen of Jones to date. He has shown plus power and 70 defense in center with a solid idea of the strike zone as an amateur, along with plus speed, so he has the tools to be a top-10 prospect in the sport. But the limited results have been poor and there’s talk of an attempt to revamp his swing for more contact. He’s stuck in neutral until he’s back on the field and can show some production, which may be several more weeks away.
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55. Matt Shaw, SS, Chicago Cubs
Previous ranking: Ineligible
Shaw was seventh on my Big Board for this year’s draft but went to the Cubs with the 13th pick, a hard-hitting infielder who barreled up the ball as often as anyone in the class and whose main drawback as a prospect was a below-average arm. Shaw is a shortstop now who’s probably going to move to second base, although he could probably handle the outfield as well, and if he hits like I expect him to hit, it won’t really matter where he plays. He makes consistent, high-quality contact, and his swing is geared to drive the ball on a line to all fields. He hit 46 homers in his last two seasons for the University of Maryland, and as a junior he struck out just 13 percent of the time. It’s a lot of contact and high-quality contact and he could be a 55 or better defender at second base. What’s not to like?
56. Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore Orioles
Previous ranking: Unranked
I think we’re finally seeing the player the Orioles drafted back in 2020, before a myocarditis diagnosis wiped out his 2021 season. He’s looked very good this year and continues to make contact at higher rates even as he’s moved up the ladder to Triple A, with just a 17.5 percent strikeout rate at that level – lower than his strikeout rate in his last full year at the University of Arkansas. Kjerstad has always made very hard contact, which the Orioles hoped would become 25-30 homer power as they worked with him on his hitting, and that seems to be where he is now. There are some small red flags in his Triple-A line – he’s chasing stuff out of the zone too much and still has struggles with same-side breaking balls – but it’s great to see him doing the stuff Baltimore expected of him when they made him the second overall pick three years ago.
57. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
Previous ranking: No. 61
O’Hoppe has been on the IL for most of this season after tearing the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, undergoing surgery in April that might keep him out until at least September. He managed to hit four homers in just 16 games before the injury, after hitting 26 last year between the Phillies and Angels organizations with a .416 OBP. He’s a patient hitter who should continue to hit for power with solid contact, probably not hitting for high averages but doing enough to keep his OBPs at or above .350, with more power than the exit velos might indicate because he gets the ball in the air so often. He’s a solid defensive catcher with maybe fringy arm strength, more than enough of an overall package to stay back there. There’s no reason this injury should affect his long-term outlook, although it wouldn’t hurt to get him back on the field for another 80-100 plate appearances in the last month.
58. Luisangel Acuña, SS, Texas Rangers
Previous ranking: Unranked
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Acuña slumped toward the end of 2022 in Double A and the Fall League, but has bounced back extremely well in his return to Frisco, hitting .304/.367/.435 with 36 steals in 39 attempts and making better-quality contact than what we saw to end the previous season. He’s a disciplined hitter who stays within the zone and is obviously quite fleet of foot, enough so that the Rangers have tried him a few games in center field this year, although he’s still primarily a shortstop and I think has a chance to stay there and maybe even get to above-average. The high-contact, high-steal, doubles-hitting approach should profile at either of those spots or at worst second base; if he stays at short or becomes a 60 defender in center, he could be an above-average regular or better.
59. Gavin Stone, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous ranking: No. 39
Stone’s major-league debut … did not go as planned. He threw 12 innings and gave up 17 runs on 28 hits. I am having a hard time thinking of a prospect of Stone’s caliber having an introduction to the majors that went this poorly. If I left him off the list, no one would say anything, right? Dude had a 12-finity ERA in the majors. He walked as many guys as he struck out. He could have walked up to the plate and put the ball on a tee and the results wouldn’t have been much worse. The most surprising part is that he gave up a ton of hard contact on his changeup, which had been his best pitch in the minors. It’s reminiscent of Edward Cabrera’s MLB debut in 2021, when his changeup was awful, worth -8 runs and looking nothing like the plus-plus pitch he’d thrown in the minors. A year later, Cabrera’s changeup was worth +10 runs and was among the best of its type in the big leagues. So I think Stone, whose changeup has generated whiff and chase rates near 50 percent in Triple A this year, will eventually be fine. He’s still 94-96 mph with an average slider and that outpitch in the change, and has to improve his command and keep the four-seamer away from the heart of the zone.
60. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous ranking: Unranked
I saw Chandler on Tuesday night in Wilmington, and the pure stuff was as impressive as anyone I’ve seen this year. The 2021 draftee was 94-98 mph for almost five innings with a plus-plus changeup and two very sharp breaking balls, although his command was well below average – almost all on the fastball, with which he misses up almost too consistently, as he’s trying to locate in the top third of the zone and seems to overcompensate for the big induced vertical on the pitch. He’s a ridiculously good athlete who looks like he’s expending relatively little effort for that kind of arm speed, and all four of his pitches have a lot of movement. I like both him and fellow Pirate prospect Anthony Solometo, a lefty who’s been in Double A for a month, but think Chandler has more long-term upside with the more complete arsenal.
Honorable mentions
I’m doing a longer list of honorable mentions this year than usual, since the back of the top 60 was pretty hard to settle on. This list is in alphabetical order, not rank, but all of these players would be on a top 100 if I did a ranking that long right now.
Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia
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Edwin Arroyo, SS, Cincinnati
Warming Bernabel, 3B, Colorado
Brainer Bonaci, SS/2B, Boston
Cam Collier, 3B, Cincinnati
Dylan Lesko, RHP, San Diego
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Toronto
Connor Norby, IF, Baltimore
Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia
Kevin Parada, C, NY Mets
Alex Ramirez, OF, NY Mets
Robbie Snelling, LHP, San Diego
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Pittsburgh
James Triantos, 2B, Chicago Cubs
George Valera, OF, Cleveland
Zac Veen, OF, Colorado
Jett Williams, SS, NY Mets
Sammy Zavala, OF, San Diego
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: G Fiume / Getty Images, David Durochik / Diamond Images)
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